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Leonard Fournette has staked total claim to the Buccaneers backfield at this point, with Giovani Bernard mixing in as the two-minute back and Ronald Jones an afterthought. The middle of the field should therefore be available for Brady to attack. James Bradberry figures to follow Mike Evans around the field, just like he did when they matched up two times a year when Bradberry was with the Panthers, but Godwin should have a significant advantage in the slot, Gronkowski is looking like he might return to the fold, and the Giants' secondary is somewhat depleted with both Logan Ryan (COVID-19) and Jabrill Peppers (out for the year) out of the lineup. If the Giants can't get that pressure to knock Brady off his game, they could be in some trouble on the back end. (He was never much of an on-the-run guy, and is even less of one now.) Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham may feel the urge to dial up some pressures just to make sure his rushers get into the backfield, but that could be dangerous against Brady, who recognizes and diagnoses the blitz better than anyone around. That's the best place to get pressure against Brady, too, because he would much rather step up and/or through the pocket than be forced to move off his spot, get to the outside, reset, and then throw. The one area the Giants might have an advantage is with Leonard Williams and company on the defensive line against the interior of Tampa's offensive line. Brady has to be out of rhythm early, or he's going to stay in rhythm all game long.
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That will be key for the Giants on Monday night. That was a defense that any good offense should have torn up.īut in something that's becoming a bit of a trend this year, the Football Team getting heavy pressure on Brady early in the game threw off the offense's rhythm for the rest of the afternoon. That was true even despite the absences of Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, and Chris Godwin's having entered the game questionable due to a foot injury. Tampa's surprising ineffectiveness against a Washington Football Team defense that had been one of the worst in the NFL entering their Week 10 matchup was one of the strangest developments of the season. The Giants have had little in the way of success running the ball this year with or without Barkley, who has largely been ineffective in the seven games he's been healthy over the last two seasons.
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Tampa is second in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, sixth in Adjusted Line Yards allowed per carry, and third in the percentage of opponent runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage (25 percent). Vita Vea is doubtful for the game, but even without him, the Bucs are too good up front to be run on. The Giants seem wildly unlikely to find much success on the ground against this Tampa defensive front that has stopped pretty much everybody from running the ball. The Bucs have gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks at the third-highest rate in the league, though they have been somewhat vulnerable to scrambling, which is one of Jones' strengths. Getting left tackle Andrew Thomas back on the field should only help on that front. He has been pressured on 32.9 percent of his dropbacks so far, per Tru Media, almost exactly equal to the league average of 32.8 percent. New York's offensive line has done a somewhat better than expected job of keeping pressure out of Daniel Jones' face this season. Now, at least, the Bucs should have both Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean in the lineup. Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Kadarius Toney are all healthy, and having to match those guys with Ross Cockrell, Pierre Desir, and Dee Delaney would be less than ideal.
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That's especially the case against a Giants wide receiver corps that is getting healthier, even with Sterling Shepard still sidelined (and not practicing) for this game coming out of the bye. The Buccaneers desperately need some help in the secondary at the moment, so the potential return of cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting - who has been out since injuring his elbow back in Week 1 - is a welcome development.